Run By Numbers

For high school cross country and track coaches

Build a distance program you can trust, even when the season refuses to follow the plan.

Know why every workout belongs, see whether your athletes are responding, and adjust without guessing when the season changes.

Find Your Starting Point

You can have every week planned and still have no idea what to change.

You planned the season. You organized the training groups. Everyone knows where to be Tuesday at 6:00 a.m.

Then the season starts.

An athlete races thirty seconds slower than expected. Was it fatigue? Bad pacing? The heat? A training problem? Or simply one bad race?

A storm cancels Tuesday's workout. Do you move it to Wednesday, replace it with something easier, or skip it so the athletes are ready to race Saturday?

One runner keeps improving on the same training that is breaking down another. Do you separate them? Change the volume? Change the pace? Give it another week?

The calendar is complete.
The decisions are not.

By September, you are changing the schedule from week to week without knowing which changes are helping. Sunday planning takes longer because every decision opens three more questions.

More information comes in. Certainty goes down.

This is not a work-ethic problem.

Most coaches respond to uncertainty by doing more.

You read another book. Rewatch the clinic presentation. Add another column to the spreadsheet. Search for the workout another successful coach used in the same situation.

A workout from a State championship program feels safer because you know it worked for someone.

What you do not know is what made it work: the athletes it was written for, the training that came before it, the recovery that followed it, or the role it played in the rest of the season.

You borrowed the workout.
You could not borrow the system that made it work.

More information gives you more options. It does not necessarily help you choose among them.

Most training plans tell you what to do. They do not show you:

  • Why each workout belongs
  • What it is supposed to change
  • What would show you that it worked
  • What to do if the athlete responds differently than expected
  • What else may be affected when you change it

Without those connections, every setback becomes a new problem to solve from scratch.

A full calendar can create a false sense of control.

A detailed schedule feels like a complete plan.

A spreadsheet full of data feels like understanding.

A successful coach's workout feels safer because someone has already proven it can work.

Then the team races flat.

You cut the mileage. Add more speed. Rewrite the taper. Move the long run.

Those are not unreasonable choices. They are the levers available to you.

But if you do not know what caused the performance, you are not making an adjustment yet.

You are making a guess.

The Illusion of Control

Mistaking a complete schedule for an understandable system.

You do not need another lever to pull. You need a better way to understand what happened before you pull it.

A healthy program helps you answer three questions.

01

What are we trying to build?

Start with what the event demands and who the athlete is today. Every major decision should help close a gap you can name.

02

Is the training doing its job?

Know what each workout is supposed to change and what you will watch to determine whether that change is happening.

03

What should we do next?

Use what you observe to continue, progress, wait, or adjust. Change the part that no longer fits without automatically rewriting everything around it.

A calendar lists workouts. The missing structure connects those workouts to their purpose, the athlete's response, and the decisions that follow.

I call that structure Training Architecture.

Training Architecture connects what you want your athletes to become with the workouts, progressions, evidence, and adjustments used to get them there.

It is not another finished plan to follow.

It is a way to build a plan you can understand, evaluate, and change.

The coach behind Run By Numbers

I spent years collecting good ideas without knowing how they fit together.

I coached cross country and track for twenty years at Texas 6A schools.

  • Nine straight cross country State qualifications
  • State champions in the 1600m and 400m
  • A third-place State finish in the 1600m
  • Plenty of seasons when the plan looked better in July than it did in September

Before coaching became my career, I designed software systems. That work taught me that a reliable system is not simply a collection of good parts. You must understand why the parts exist, how they connect, and what happens when one of them changes.

It took me years to recognize the same problem in coaching. I had good workouts. Good books. Good clinic notes. Good intentions. What I lacked was a way to connect them.

Run By Numbers is where I help distance coaches build those connections. I am not here to hand you one more schedule. I want to help you build a program that makes sense for the athletes you actually coach.

Shawn Siemers with Emanuel Galdino moments after winning the 2022 UIL 6A State Championship in the 1600m

Emanuel Galdino, 2022 UIL 6A State Champion, 1600m, 4:06.

Team gathered in a circle holding State-qualifying medals
Coach and athlete embracing after a race finish

A clearer way to build and adjust training

1

Name the destination

Define what the event requires, understand the athlete you have today, and identify the gap that matters most.

2

Give every workout a job

Know what each workout is supposed to accomplish, why it belongs where it does, and what could replace it if circumstances change.

3

Let evidence guide the next decision

Decide what progress should look like before you progress. When the athlete responds differently than expected, adjust the actual problem instead of rewriting the entire plan.

The goal is not a season with no surprises.
It is knowing what to do when they arrive.

The weather will still change. Athletes will get sick. A race will expose something you did not expect. Some athletes will adapt faster than others.

None of that disappears. What changes is your ability to respond.

  • You can explain why today’s workout belongs.
  • A poor race leads to specific questions instead of an immediate schedule rewrite.
  • A canceled workout can be moved, replaced, or skipped based on the job it was supposed to do.
  • When something works, you know what to preserve.
  • When something fails, you know where to begin looking.
  • Next season starts with what you learned from this one.

You stop needing certainty about what will happen. You gain confidence in how you will understand and respond.

That is Operational Certainty.

Not certainty about results. Certainty about how you will coach through them.

Stop solving every setback from scratch.

Build a distance program you understand well enough to trust, evaluate, and adjust.

Find Your Starting Point